The dollar is nearing a significant milestone. What will the currency be worth by mid-month?

Currently, the dollar exchange rate fluctuates around the significant psychological level of 100 rubles in the currency market. The future movement of the currency will depend on various factors and may be determined in the coming days. At present, the dollar rate in the over-the-counter market hovers near the 100 ruble mark, while the Central Bank has maintained the official rate below this level since December 7.

— A rebound started in the currency market on Tuesday. The Central Bank is not holding anything back; it merely reflects the rate from the over-the-counter market. Moreover, the fixation of foreign currency rates lags behind exchange trends — where the ruble is already weakening and the dollar is again above 100. Dollar futures briefly exceeded 102, — noted BCS Expert Market analyst Mikhail Zel'tser.

According to his estimates, the technical pullback of the ruble after a strong recovery and the rebound of foreign currencies following their 8-day slump is likely to be short-lived. Against the backdrop of adjustments to export payment mechanisms disrupted by sanctions against banks last fall, the dollar may later find itself back in double-digit territory.

It is worth recalling that a key factor that led to the dollar's exchange rate rising above 114 rubles at the end of November was the sanctions against Gazprombank, which serves as the primary financial gateway for currency inflow into Russia. This coincided with an increased demand for foreign currency from the population and importers due to the upcoming New Year holidays.

— The strengthening of the ruble observed in early December after the sharp spike in the dollar's rate was the result of several significant factors. First, the Central Bank suspended currency purchase operations until the end of the year, which were previously conducted as part of mirror actions with the Ministry of Finance related to the budget rule. Second, on December 5, the President of Russia canceled the mandatory requirement for foreign buyers of Russian gas to pay for supplies only through Gazprombank accounts, allowing companies to use alternative payment methods. It is also important to note that the spike in the rate was primarily driven by news background, and no further sanctions from G7 countries have been imposed yet, — explained independent private investment expert Ruslan Pichugin.

After a wave of ruble weakening and the subsequent corrective growth in December, stabilization of the national currency can be expected. The ruble may settle in the range of 100–105 rubles against the dollar, and around 14 rubles against the yuan. This forecast was made by the chief analyst of the "Banks.ru" service, Bogdan Zvarich.

At the same time, the situation in the energy market will continue to be an important factor for the national currency, where Brent crude oil has yet to break out of the 70–75 dollars per barrel range. All attempts to breach its upper boundary have been unsuccessful.

Bogdan Zvarich believes that if oil manages to start rising, the ruble will have a chance to continue its recovery. In such a scenario, the dollar could retreat below 100 rubles, and the yuan could fall below the 13.5 ruble mark.

— In the short term, the ruble may continue to strengthen to a range of 97.5–98.5 rubles per dollar. However, in the long term, a gradual weakening of the ruble is expected. In the first half of next year, the most likely dollar exchange rate range will be 105–107 rubles, and by the end of the year, it may reach around 119 rubles, with a deviation of three to four rubles, — believes Ruslan Pichugin.

By the end of December, volatility in the currency market may remain high, but the exchange rate could finish the year in the range of 105–100 rubles per dollar. This forecast was made by the chief analyst of the investment analytics center of the "Rosgosstrakh Life" company, Mikhail Shulgin.

He explained that due to sanctions, the volume of currency sales by exporters will likely decrease, but the capital outflow will also face challenges. At the same time, the demand from importers for foreign currency has already been satisfied.